「可能性が高い」vs.「可能性がある」: Understanding Possibility and Likelihood in Japanese

Introduction: Do These Two Japanese Expressions Mean the Same Thing?

Imagine checking tomorrow's weather forecast. You might hear either of these sentences:

「明日は雨が降る可能性があります。」
It may rain tomorrow.

「明日は雨が降る可能性が高いです。」
It is likely to rain tomorrow.

Both sentences are perfectly natural Japanese. However, they communicate slightly different levels of expectation.

The first sentence tells us that rain is one possible outcome. It does not tell us exactly how likely that outcome is.

The second sentence expresses a stronger prediction: based on the available information, rain is considered likely.

This is the essential distinction between two useful Japanese expressions:

• 可能性がある (kanōsei ga aru): There is a possibility that something may happen.
• 可能性が高い (kanōsei ga takai): There is a high likelihood that something will happen.

You will encounter both expressions in everyday conversations, workplace communication, news reports, and Japanese reading passages.

For JLPT N3–N2 learners, memorizing their dictionary meanings is only the beginning. Understanding when to use each expression is what makes your Japanese sound more natural.

Let's explore the difference through real-life situations.

First, Imagine This Situation: Will Tomorrow's Match Be Canceled?

Imagine that you belong to your school's soccer club.

An important match is scheduled for tomorrow, but the weather is becoming a concern.

Consider these two situations.

Situation A: The Weather Is Uncertain

The sky is cloudy, and the weather forecast says it might rain tomorrow.

You could naturally say:

「明日の試合は、雨で中止になる可能性があります。」
There is a possibility that tomorrow's match will be canceled because of rain.

Here, cancellation is one possible outcome.

You are not saying that cancellation is particularly likely. You are simply acknowledging that it could happen.

Situation B: Heavy Rain Is Expected

Now imagine that the forecast predicts heavy rain throughout the morning. Your school has also announced that it is considering whether the match can go ahead.

In this situation, you might say:

「明日の試合は、雨で中止になる可能性が高いです。」
Tomorrow's match is likely to be canceled because of rain.

Why is this expression more appropriate?

Because you now have stronger reasons to expect cancellation: the heavy-rain forecast and the school's announcement.

The event being discussed is exactly the same, but the strength of the prediction has changed.

Remember:

• Use 可能性がある when something is a possible outcome.
• Use 可能性が高い when you believe an outcome is likely.

One important point: 可能性が高い does not mean that something is guaranteed to happen.

It expresses likelihood, not certainty.

Situation 1: Which Expression Sounds Natural in Everyday Conversation?

We frequently discuss uncertain plans and future events in daily life.

When we don't know exactly what will happen, 可能性がある is a flexible and useful expression.

可能性がある: Something Might Happen

Consider this conversation:

A：「田中さん、今日の飲み会に来ますか？」
Is Tanaka coming to the gathering tonight?

B：「仕事が忙しいらしいので、来られない可能性がありますね。」
Apparently, he's busy with work, so there's a possibility he won't be able to come.

Speaker B knows that Tanaka is busy but does not know whether he will actually attend.

The expression simply presents nonattendance as a possible outcome.

可能性が高い: There Is a Stronger Reason to Expect Something

Now consider a slightly different conversation:

A：「田中さん、まだ会社にいるんですか？」
Is Tanaka still at the office?

B：「ええ。今日は締め切り前で仕事がたくさん残っているそうです。」
Yes. Apparently, he still has a lot of work to finish before the deadline.

A：「それなら、飲み会に来られない可能性が高いですね。」
In that case, it's quite likely he won't be able to come to the gathering.

Here, the speaker has more specific information.

Because Tanaka still has a heavy workload, the speaker considers his absence more likely.

A Useful Tip for Casual Conversations

Both expressions are natural Japanese, but they can sound slightly explanatory or analytical.

In casual conversations with friends, Japanese speakers may choose softer, more direct alternatives.

For example:

「来られない可能性があります。」
There is a possibility that he won't be able to come.

A more conversational alternative:

「来られないかもしれません。」
He might not be able to come.

Similarly:

「来られない可能性が高いです。」
It's likely that he won't be able to come.

Possible conversational alternatives:

「来られないと思います。」
I don't think he'll be able to come.

「たぶん来られないでしょう。」
He probably won't be able to come.

The original expressions are particularly useful when explaining a situation to a teacher, reporting something at work, or discussing a prediction.

Situation 2: Which Expression Is Better for News Reports and Written Japanese?

Both 可能性がある and 可能性が高い are commonly used in Japanese news reports, informational articles, official announcements, and reading passages.

The important difference is not that one expression is formal and the other is informal.

Rather, the choice depends on how strongly the writer wants to express a prediction.

可能性がある: Communicating a Possible Situation or Risk

Example:

「今夜から雨が強まり、一部の地域では道路が冠水する可能性があります。」

Rain is expected to intensify from tonight, and roads in some areas may become flooded.

This sentence alerts readers to a potential risk.

It does not claim that flooding will definitely occur, nor does it specify that flooding is highly likely.

This use of 可能性がある is common in:

• Weather reports and disaster warnings
• Safety instructions
• Public announcements
• General informational articles

可能性が高い: Expressing a Stronger Forecast

Example:

「台風が接近しているため、明日の航空便は欠航する可能性が高いとみられています。」

Because a typhoon is approaching, tomorrow's flights are considered likely to be canceled.

In this example, the approaching typhoon provides a concrete reason for the stronger prediction.

The expression 可能性が高い is frequently used when discussing forecasts, assessments, or conclusions based on available information.

You may encounter it in:

• Weather and disaster-related news
• Economic and market reports
• Scientific research and survey results
• Business forecasts and risk assessments

However, never confuse 可能性が高い with a statement of absolute certainty.

This distinction is particularly important when answering JLPT reading-comprehension questions.

Situation 3: What About Personal Feelings, Expectations, and Judgments?

Neither 可能性がある nor 可能性が高い is inherently emotional.

Both expressions describe a possibility or prediction.

However, personal expectations, concerns, previous experiences, and available evidence can influence which expression a speaker chooses.

Let's look at two common situations.

Expressing Hope or Expectations

Imagine that your friend has just taken the JLPT N2 examination.

A：「彼はN2に合格できそうですか？」
Do you think he'll pass N2?

B：「合格する可能性はあると思いますよ。」
I think there's a possibility he'll pass.

This response suggests that passing is a realistic possibility.

However, the expression alone does not indicate exactly how likely he is to pass.

Now imagine that your friend consistently scores well on practice examinations.

A：「彼はN2に合格できそうですか？」
Do you think he'll pass N2?

B：「模擬試験では毎回高い点数を取っているので、合格する可能性は高いと思いますよ。」
He consistently gets high scores on practice exams, so I think he's likely to pass.

This time, the speaker has a concrete reason for expressing a stronger expectation.

Notice that both expressions can appear with と思います (I think), making them suitable for communicating a personal assessment.

Expressing Concern or Risk

Now imagine that a technical problem has been discovered at work.

「このままでは、システムに不具合が発生する可能性があります。」

If things continue as they are, there is a possibility that the system will experience a malfunction.

This sentence warns that a problem could occur.

Now compare it with:

「すでに同じエラーが何度も発生しているため、再び不具合が起こる可能性が高いです。」

Because the same error has already occurred repeatedly, another malfunction is likely.

The second sentence communicates a stronger prediction based on previous incidents.

An Important Point About Objectivity

It would be incorrect to assume that 可能性がある is subjective while 可能性が高い is objective.

Both expressions can be used to communicate either an evidence-based assessment or a speaker's personal judgment.

The essential questions are:

• What information supports the prediction?
• How strongly does the speaker expect the event to occur?

Thinking about these two questions will help you select the more appropriate expression.

Key Differences Between the Two Expressions

Let's summarize what we have learned.

可能性がある (kanōsei ga aru)

Meaning: There is a possibility that something may happen.

Key characteristics:

• Indicates that an event is a possible outcome.
• Does not specify how likely that outcome is.
• Does not necessarily mean the probability is low.
• Can be used in everyday conversations, news reports, explanations, and warnings.
• Is useful when presenting possible risks, future scenarios, or alternative outcomes.

Example:

「予定が変更になる可能性があります。」
There is a possibility that the schedule may change.

The speaker is acknowledging that a schedule change could occur.

可能性が高い (kanōsei ga takai)

Meaning: Something is likely to happen.

Key characteristics:

• Expresses a relatively high likelihood.
• Communicates a stronger prediction than 可能性がある.
• Is often used when available evidence supports a particular expectation.
• Is suitable for news reports, research findings, business communication, and daily conversations.
• Does not indicate absolute certainty.

Example:

「参加希望者が少ないため、イベントが中止になる可能性が高いです。」

Because there are few people interested in participating, the event is likely to be canceled.

The low number of potential participants provides a reason for expecting cancellation.

One distinction worth remembering:

可能性がある does NOT automatically mean 可能性が低い (a low possibility).

It simply does not specify the degree of likelihood.

Practice with Examples: When Should You Use Each Expression?

Let's explore eight practical examples covering situations you may encounter in everyday life, at school, at work, and in Japanese reading materials.

Example 1: Making Everyday Plans

「明日は急な仕事が入る可能性があるので、まだ予定を決められません。」

I might have some unexpected work tomorrow, so I can't finalize my plans yet.

This expression is natural when your schedule is still uncertain.

You are not saying that unexpected work will definitely come up. It is simply one possible outcome.

Example 2: Discussing the Weather

「天気予報では一日中雨となっているので、遠足が延期になる可能性が高いです。」

The weather forecast predicts rain throughout the day, so the school excursion is likely to be postponed.

The forecast provides a clear reason for expecting postponement.

Example 3: A Conversation at School

「今回の試験は前回より難しいので、平均点が下がる可能性があります。」

This exam is more difficult than the previous one, so there is a possibility that the average score will decrease.

The speaker identifies a possible consequence of the more difficult examination.

Example 4: Studying for the JLPT

「彼は最近の模擬試験で毎回合格点を超えているので、N2に合格する可能性が高いと思います。」

He has consistently scored above the passing mark on recent practice exams, so I think he is likely to pass N2.

The stronger prediction is supported by his recent test performance.

Example 5: Reporting a Problem at Work

「部品の納入が遅れているため、製品の出荷予定が変更になる可能性があります。」

Because the delivery of parts has been delayed, there is a possibility that the product shipping schedule may change.

This sentence is suitable for informing colleagues or business partners about a potential schedule change.

Example 6: Making a Sales Forecast

「予約数が当初の予想を大きく上回っているため、この商品は発売後すぐに売り切れる可能性が高いです。」

Preorders have greatly exceeded initial expectations, so this product is likely to sell out shortly after its release.

The prediction is based on actual preorder figures.

Example 7: Understanding a News Report

「地震の影響により、一部の鉄道路線では運転の再開が遅れる可能性があります。」

Due to the effects of the earthquake, the resumption of train services on some lines may be delayed.

The sentence alerts passengers to a possible disruption without stating that the delay is certain.

Example 8: Reading Research Findings

「今回の調査結果から、生活習慣の変化が睡眠時間に影響している可能性が高いと考えられます。」

Based on the results of this survey, it is considered likely that changes in lifestyle habits are affecting sleep duration.

Here, 可能性が高い expresses a relatively strong assessment based on research findings.

This type of wording is especially common in analytical and academic writing.

JLPT Reading Tips: How to Recognize Different Levels of Certainty

In JLPT N3–N2 reading comprehension, understanding the general meaning of a passage is not always enough.

You also need to recognize how strongly the writer presents a prediction or conclusion.

Consider the following practice passage.

Reading Practice

「近年、この地域では夏の平均気温が上昇している。今後も気温が上がり続ければ、農作物の生産量に影響が出る可能性がある。特に、水不足が続いている地域では、収穫量が減少する可能性が高いと考えられている。」

English translation:

In recent years, average summer temperatures in this region have been rising. If temperatures continue to increase, agricultural production may be affected. In particular, crop yields are considered likely to decrease in areas experiencing continued water shortages.

Notice how the passage uses both expressions.

Understanding 可能性がある

「生産量に影響が出る可能性がある」

Agricultural production may be affected.

The writer explains that rising temperatures could affect agricultural production.

However, the statement does not specify exactly how likely that outcome is.

Understanding 可能性が高い

「収穫量が減少する可能性が高い」

Crop yields are likely to decrease.

Here, the prediction is stronger.

The passage specifically identifies areas experiencing water shortages as places where a decrease in crop yields is considered likely.

In other words, the writer is not making equally strong predictions about every region.

Recognizing this distinction can help you avoid mistakes in reading-comprehension questions.

Three Expressions to Distinguish in JLPT Reading

Pay particular attention to the following:

• 可能性がある: Something may happen, but the degree of likelihood is not specified.
• 可能性が高い: Something is considered likely to happen.
• 確実である / 必ず〜する: Something is presented as certain or definite.

For example, imagine that a passage states:

「収穫量が減少する可能性が高い」
Crop yields are likely to decrease.

If a multiple-choice answer says:

「収穫量は必ず減少する」
Crop yields will definitely decrease.

That answer is not an accurate restatement of the original prediction.

A likely outcome is not the same as a guaranteed outcome.

Similarly, if a passage only states 可能性がある, you should not automatically interpret it as 可能性が低い (unlikely).

Always examine the surrounding context.

Ask yourself:

• Why does the writer believe this might happen?
• How strongly is the writer predicting the outcome?
• Does the passage express a possibility, a strong likelihood, or certainty?

These questions will help you understand subtle differences in Japanese reading passages.

Conclusion: Learn Japanese Expressions Through Real Situations

Today, we explored the difference between 可能性がある and 可能性が高い through everyday conversations, school situations, workplace communication, news reports, and JLPT reading examples.

Here are the main points to remember:

• Use 可能性がある when something is a possible outcome.
• Use 可能性が高い when an outcome is considered likely.
• Both expressions can be used in conversation and writing, although they have a slightly explanatory tone.
• 可能性がある does not necessarily mean that the probability is low.
• 可能性が高い does not mean that an outcome is guaranteed.

When learning similar Japanese expressions, don't stop at memorizing their English definitions.

Instead, connect each expression to a specific situation and pay attention to the information surrounding it.

This approach will help you develop a more natural understanding of Japanese while improving your vocabulary and reading-comprehension skills for JLPT N3–N2.

Turn What You've Learned into Practical Japanese Skills!

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