そうにない vs そうもない: Unlikely Outcomes

When studying Japanese, you will often encounter expressions that seem almost identical at first glance.

Two common examples are:

• 「そうにない」 (sō ni nai / does not seem likely to...)
• 「そうもない」 (sō mo nai / does not seem likely to...)

Consider the following sentences:

「この雨は、しばらくやみそうにない。」
This rain does not seem likely to stop for a while.

「この雨は、しばらくやみそうもない。」
This rain does not seem likely to stop for a while.

Both sentences describe a situation in which the rain will probably continue.

So, what is the difference?

The key point is simple:

「そうにない」 is a neutral prediction based on the current situation.
「そうもない」 often sounds slightly stronger and may suggest that the speaker sees little hope of change.

The difference is subtle. In many situations, both expressions are grammatically correct.

However, understanding the nuance will help you make better choices in JLPT reading questions and communicate more naturally in Japanese.

The Shared Meaning of 「そうにない」 and 「そうもない」

Both expressions indicate that something is unlikely to happen.

They are used when the speaker looks at the current situation and makes a prediction.

「起こりそうだ。」
It seems likely to happen.

「起こりそうにない。」
It does not seem likely to happen.

「起こりそうもない。」
It seems very unlikely to happen.

The speaker is not usually making an absolute statement. Instead, the speaker is judging the probability based on the available information.

How to Form These Expressions

Attach 「そうにない」 or 「そうもない」 to the stem of the verb.

To find the stem, remove 「ます」 from the polite verb form.

• 降ります → 降りそうにない
• 降ります → 降りそうもない
• 終わります → 終わりそうにない
• 終わります → 終わりそうもない
• 間に合います → 間に合いそうにない
• 間に合います → 間に合いそうもない

Example Sentences

「空が明るくなってきたので、雨は降りそうにない。」
The sky is getting brighter, so it does not seem likely to rain.

「この量の仕事を一人で終わらせるのは難しい。今日中には終わりそうもない。」
It is difficult to finish this amount of work alone. It seems very unlikely that I will finish it today.

「そうにない」: A Calm and Neutral Prediction

「そうにない」 (sō ni nai) is commonly used when the speaker calmly judges that something is unlikely to happen.

It is a natural choice when describing an objective situation.

Examples

「電車が遅れているので、約束の時間には間に合いそうにない。」
The train is delayed, so I do not think I will arrive in time for the appointment.

「空は晴れている。今日は雨が降りそうにない。」
The sky is clear. It does not seem likely to rain today.

「説明を読んだが、この問題は簡単には解けそうにない。」
I read the explanation, but this problem does not seem easy to solve.

「彼は忙しいようなので、今日の会議には来られそうにない。」
He seems busy, so he probably will not be able to attend today's meeting.

In these examples, the speaker is making a prediction based on the situation.

The speaker is not necessarily saying that the event is completely impossible. The probability simply appears to be low.

「そうもない」: A Stronger Sense That Something Is Unlikely

「そうもない」 (sō mo nai) has the same basic meaning, but it often creates a slightly stronger impression.

The particle 「も」 (mo) may suggest that the expected possibility cannot even be seen.

Depending on the context, it can express disappointment, frustration, or a sense of resignation.

Examples

「何時間も待っているが、バスは来そうもない。」
I have been waiting for hours, but the bus does not seem likely to come.

「この雨はますます強くなっている。朝までやみそうもない。」
The rain is getting heavier and heavier. It does not look like it will stop before morning.

「何度考えても、よい解決方法は見つかりそうもない。」
No matter how many times I think about it, I do not think I will find a good solution.

「これだけ練習しても記録が伸びない。簡単には優勝できそうもない。」
Even after practicing this much, my results are not improving. Winning the championship does not seem easy at all.

Words such as 「何時間も」 (for hours), 「何度考えても」 (no matter how many times I think about it), and 「到底」 (by no means) often match naturally with 「そうもない」.

Comparing the Two Expressions

Example 1: Rain

「雨は、しばらくやみそうにない。」
The rain does not seem likely to stop for a while.

This sounds like a calm prediction based on the current weather.

「この激しい雨は、朝までやみそうもない。」
This heavy rain does not seem likely to stop before morning.

The speaker strongly feels that the situation will not improve soon.

Example 2: Work

「仕事が多いので、今日中には終わりそうにない。」
There is a lot of work, so it does not seem likely that I will finish today.

This is a relatively neutral judgment.

「こんなに仕事が残っていては、今日中には終わりそうもない。」
With this much work still left, there is almost no chance that I will finish today.

The speaker sounds more discouraged or frustrated.

Example 3: A Difficult Problem

「この問題は、すぐには解けそうにない。」
This problem does not seem easy to solve quickly.

The speaker is calmly evaluating the difficulty.

「一時間考えたが、この問題は解けそうもない。」
I have thought about it for an hour, but I do not think I can solve this problem.

The speaker has already made an effort and now feels that finding the answer is very unlikely.

An Easy Way to Remember the Difference

When you are unsure, use the following guideline:

• 「そうにない」: a calm prediction that something is unlikely
• 「そうもない」: a stronger impression that something is very unlikely

The particle 「も」 in 「そうもない」 can add the nuance that there is not even a clear sign that the event will happen.

However, this is not an absolute rule.

In many everyday situations, both expressions are possible. The choice depends on the speaker's attitude and the surrounding context.

JLPT Reading Tip: Look at the Words Before and After the Expression

In JLPT questions, do not focus only on the blank.

Look for words that reveal the speaker's attitude.

Expressions That Often Match 「そうにない」

• 「今のところ」 (for now)
• 「しばらく」 (for a while)
• 「予報によると」 (according to the forecast)
• 「現在の状況では」 (under the current circumstances)
• 「簡単には」 (not easily)

Expressions That Often Match 「そうもない」

• 「何度試しても」 (no matter how many times I try)
• 「どう考えても」 (no matter how I think about it)
• 「到底」 (by no means)
• 「一向に」 (not at all)
• 「これだけ待っても」 (even after waiting this long)

Consider this sentence:

「何度も電話をかけているが、彼は出そうもない。」
I have called him many times, but it does not seem likely that he will answer.

The phrase 「何度も電話をかけている」 shows that the speaker has already tried repeatedly.

This is more than a neutral prediction. The speaker is starting to believe that the person will not answer at all.

That is why 「出そうもない」 sounds natural.

Common Mistakes

Do Not Attach the Expression Directly to the Dictionary Form

Use the verb stem, not the dictionary form.

• Correct: 「終わりそうにない。」
• Correct: 「終わりそうもない。」
• Incorrect for this meaning: 「終わるそうにない。」

「終わるそうだ」 means “I heard that it will end,” because 「そうだ」 can also express hearsay.

When you want to say that something does not seem likely to end, use:

「終わりそうにない。」
It does not seem likely to end.

Do Not Confuse 「そうにない」 with 「そうではない」

「そうにない」 and 「そうではない」 have different functions.

「彼は来そうにない。」
It does not seem likely that he will come.

「彼は来ないそうだ。」
I heard that he will not come.

The first sentence is a prediction based on the situation.

The second sentence reports information that the speaker heard from someone else.

With adjectives, 「そうではない」 may also appear.

「この料理は、あまりおいしそうではない。」
This food does not look very tasty.

It is important to distinguish between a prediction about a future action and an impression based on appearance.

Mini Quiz

Choose the expression that sounds more natural: 「そうにない」 or 「そうもない」.

Question 1

「何時間も空港で待っているが、飛行機は出発し（　　　　）。」

Answer: 「そうもない」

「何時間も待っている」 shows that the speaker has already waited for a long time and sees little hope of change.

Question 2

「天気予報によると、今日は雨が降り（　　　　）。」

Answer: 「そうにない」

The speaker is making a calm prediction based on the weather forecast.

Question 3

「何度説明しても彼は納得してくれない。簡単には解決し（　　　　）。」

Answer: 「そうもない」

The phrase 「何度説明しても」 suggests that repeated efforts have not changed the situation.

However, 「そうにない」 is not grammatically incorrect here. The difference is mainly a matter of nuance.

Summary: 「も」 Often Makes the Negative Judgment Stronger

「そうにない」 and 「そうもない」 both mean that something is unlikely to happen.

The main difference is the speaker's attitude.

• 「そうにない」: a neutral or calm prediction
• 「そうもない」: a slightly stronger judgment, sometimes with frustration or resignation
• In many cases, both expressions are possible
• In JLPT questions, the surrounding context is the most important clue

To improve your JLPT reading score, memorizing grammar definitions is not enough.

You also need to notice the tone of the sentence and the speaker's attitude.

When two answer choices seem almost identical, the small clues in the context often lead you to the correct answer.

Related grammar guide: JLPT Negative and Limitation Expressions

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